اكتشف المزيد حول ما يخبِّئه المستقبل لنا ولماذا نهتم؟

بقلم Centre for Effective Altruism
بُعد الأمدية

النزاعات التاريخيَّة العالمية

  • How big a deal was the Industrial Revolution? (1 hour 20 mins.)
  • Three wild speculations from amateur quantitative macrohistory (10 mins.)
  • Modeling the human trajectory (30 mins.)

التنبؤات

  • How accurate are open phil’s predictions? (10 mins.)
  • Efforts to improve the accuracy of our judgments and forecasts (18 mins.)
  • Intro to forecasting 01 - What is it and why should I care? - exploring the ways to work on and the importance of improving our calibration

التخطيط طويل الأمد

  • What We Owe the Future — Will MacAskill’s 2022 book arguing that improving humanity’s long-term future is a key moral priority of our time.
  • Orienting towards the long-term future (Video — 25 mins.)
  • The case for strong longtermism (1 hour 20 mins.)
  • The epistemic challenge to longtermism (2 min. Discussion of a somewhat longer paper)
  • The Precipice, Appendix B — Population ethics and existential risk (10 mins.)
  • Representing future generations — Political institutions generally operate on 2-to-4-year timescales which aren’t long enough to address global issues (as the issue of climate change has shown). This talk analyzes sources of political short-termism and describes institutional reforms to align government incentives with the interests of all generations. (Video — 30 mins.)
  • Blueprints (& lenses) for longtermist decision-making — How are we supposed to apply longtermism in practice? The author outlines two concepts of a ‘blueprint’ and a ‘lens’ to clarify this issue. (7 mins.)
  • Major UN report discusses existential risk and future generations (summary) (18 mins.)

مخاطر التخطيط طويل الأمد

  • Against Longtermism (1 min. summary, 5. min read)
  • Comment to “EA is more than longtermism” (2 mins. for the comment, lots to explore)
  • How the simulation argument dampens future fanaticism
  • Should longtermists mostly think about animals? (30 mins.)
  • Comment on “Problems with EA representativeness and how to solve it” (2 mins.)

المخاطر الوجودية

  • لماذا تُعدّ مخاطر المعاناة الأسوء على الإطلاق، وكيف نتجنبها؟ (20 mins.)

المنشور الأصلي: Centre for Effective Altruism (2022) More to explore on «What could the future hold? And why care?», Effective Altruism Forum, 6 يوليو.

ترجمة: رغد شربجي.