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النزاعات التاريخيَّة العالمية
- How big a deal was the Industrial Revolution? (1 hour 20 mins.)
- Three wild speculations from amateur quantitative macrohistory (10 mins.)
- Modeling the human trajectory (30 mins.)
التنبؤات
- How accurate are open phil’s predictions? (10 mins.)
- Efforts to improve the accuracy of our judgments and forecasts (18 mins.)
- Intro to forecasting 01 - What is it and why should I care? - exploring the ways to work on and the importance of improving our calibration
التخطيط طويل الأمد
- What We Owe the Future — Will MacAskill’s 2022 book arguing that improving humanity’s long-term future is a key moral priority of our time.
- Orienting towards the long-term future (Video — 25 mins.)
- The case for strong longtermism (1 hour 20 mins.)
- The epistemic challenge to longtermism (2 min. Discussion of a somewhat longer paper)
- The Precipice, Appendix B — Population ethics and existential risk (10 mins.)
- Representing future generations — Political institutions generally operate on 2-to-4-year timescales which aren’t long enough to address global issues (as the issue of climate change has shown). This talk analyzes sources of political short-termism and describes institutional reforms to align government incentives with the interests of all generations. (Video — 30 mins.)
- Blueprints (& lenses) for longtermist decision-making — How are we supposed to apply longtermism in practice? The author outlines two concepts of a ‘blueprint’ and a ‘lens’ to clarify this issue. (7 mins.)
- Major UN report discusses existential risk and future generations (summary) (18 mins.)
مخاطر التخطيط طويل الأمد
- Against Longtermism (1 min. summary, 5. min read)
- Comment to “EA is more than longtermism” (2 mins. for the comment, lots to explore)
- How the simulation argument dampens future fanaticism
- Should longtermists mostly think about animals? (30 mins.)
- Comment on “Problems with EA representativeness and how to solve it” (2 mins.)